The World Bank - Climate Change - Europe & Central Asia

Europe & Central Asia

Countries in the Europe and Central Asia (ECA) region are already facing primarily negative consequences from recent climate variability, with increasing frequency and cost of natural disasters.

Context
Strategy
Results

In the coming decades these countries will face warmer temperatures, a changing hydrology and even more extremes—droughts, floods, heat waves, windstorms, and forest fires. Reduction in greenhouse gas emissions from large emitters in ECA can help with meeting global targets and energy efficiency improvements have already proven to be cost effective investments. The World Bank's ECA region is gearing up to support partner countries in mitigating carbon emissions, building their knowledge base on climate science, assessing consequences and adaptation approaches, and strengthening the climate resilience of its portfolio of investments.

Context

Average temperatures across ECA have already increased by 0.5°C in the south to 1.6°C in the north (Siberia), and overall increases of 1.6 to 2.6°C are expected by the middle of the century. This is affecting hydrology, with a rapid melting of the region's glaciers and a decrease in winter snows. Many countries are already suffering from winter floods and summer droughts—with both Southeastern Europe and Central Asia at risk for severe water shortages. Summer heat waves are expected to claim more lives than will be saved by warmer winters.

ECA's vulnerability is also being influenced by its development legacy which exacerbates the severity of climate impacts. In fact, ECA already suffers from a serious adaptation deficit even to its current climate. Vulnerability over the next ten to twenty years will be dominated by socioeconomic factors and legacy issues—notably the dire environmental situation and the poor state of infrastructure—rather than by the changing climate itself. The region also bears the burden of poorly constructed, badly maintained, and aging infrastructure and housing—a legacy of both the Soviet era and the transition years. These investments are ill-suited to cope with storms, heat waves, or floods, let alone protect populations from the impacts of such extreme events. While Turkey does not carry the same legacy issues, it suffers from demographic pressures on fragile natural resources and inadequate and vulnerable infrastructure.

Many have noted that warmer climate and abundant precipitation in the northeastern part of ECA (Kazakhstan, Russia, and Ukraine) will open up a new agricultural frontier. However, any potential benefit pales in comparison to the costs of the region's relative inefficiency and low productivity. While world grain yields have been growing on average by about 1.5 percent per year, they have been falling or stagnant in these three countries, where productivity is far below that of Western Europe or the US.

While some impacts of climate change are already being felt, they will likely remain manageable over the next decade. Regardless of climate change, ECA will gain a lot by improving its water resource management, fixing its serious environmental legacies, upgrading neglected infrastructure and housing, and strengthening disaster management. But the region should also develop strategies to reduce vulnerability to future changes—focusing on infrastructure but also on capacity building and stronger institutions to support adaptation. Much of the adaptation needed to make ECA more resistant to climate change will have substantial co-benefits. Improved water resource management, better performing water utilities and energy systems, and upgraded housing and transport infrastructure are crucially needed independent of climate change. The gains from improved agricultural practices are much more significant than the changes expected from climate change. In any case, the region must clean up environmental hotspots, accelerate disaster management, and expand hydro-meteorology services. These forward-looking decisions today will help avoid locking countries into unsustainable patterns of development.

Reducing the impacts of Greenhouse Gas Emissions (GHG) on global climate is important for many ECA countries to meet their international obligations, and for EU member states, community-wide policy goals. Looking at the group of 25 largest carbon dioxide emitters globally, one finds the Russian Federation at number three (behind the U.S. and China) with Ukraine, Poland, Turkey, and Kazakhstan holding respectively, positions as numbers 20, 21, 24 and 25.

Health, social and livelihood issues also arise with climate change in ECA. A more stressed agriculture sector will translate into higher rates of malnutrition and increased susceptibility to disease. Families dependent on rain-fed agriculture will be adversely affected by shifts in precipitation and over time may choose to migrate to seek improved livelihoods, increasing the numbers of people underserved by local health systems. Water degradation from a variety of sources will expose more people to dengue fever and diarrheal diseases. Droughts and the consequences of heat-waves are of particular concern. A number of diseases associated with warmer weather are likely to become more prevalent in ECA, and some have already surfaced. A major concern is malaria. Largely eradicated from Europe, malaria has returned to the Caucasus and Central Asia, with weather-related events raising disease levels.

Strategy

The ECA Region has been at the forefront in the use of carbon finance as an incentive for GHG reduction, beginning in the energy sector, expanding to forestry, and in the future with a new emphasis on transport and urban development. Bank partner experience helped set the stage for the European Trading Scheme, the world's largest carbon market. In a similar vein, ECA is leading the way with the development of Green Investment Schemes (GIS) to pilot the reinvestment of carbon finance revenues into climate friendly investments. The region is adding to the investment mix new Climate Investment Funds; in particular the Clean Technology Fund (CTF) and Pilot Program for Climate Resilience (PPCR).

ECA partner countries in Southeastern Europe, Turkey, the Caucasus and Central Asia will be particularly hard hit by climate change in the coming decades and the region is responding with a mix of “no-regrets” investments and non-lending support. To advance our understanding of climate resilient development, a series of pilot projects are underway to shape adaptation options in sensitive sub-sectors and sub-regions. Given increasing partner attention on climate issues, the Bank's increasing tool kit of responses, and the new CIFs, the ECA region will be preparing a Climate Business Plan during FY10.

Results

FY09 innovation highlights for the ECA region on climate include:

Approval of the Turkey Private Sector Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Project with the Bank's first Clean Technology Fund financing ($100 million) combined with IBRD financing ($500 million).
Approval of the Rosneft gas flaring reduction project in Russia which will eliminate 6.65 million tons of carbon dioxide-equivalent over the first Kyoto Protocol commitment period (2009-2011).
Selection of Tajikistan as one of the first countries to begin preparing a comprehensive program for adaptation investments and capacity-building under the Pilot Program for Climate Resilience.
Launch of the ECA Flagship Report: "Adapting to Climate Change in Europe and Central Asia" in June 2009.
Launch of the major report on “Weather and Climate Services in Europe and Central Asia” in December 2008.
Initiation of adaptation pilot projects on the vulnerability of energy systems and agriculture (with a focus on Albania) and water in Southeastern Europe (with a focus on the Sava River Basin).